-Dow moves above 12400 on strange futures buying ahead of the close, but fails to clear 12,4000 in last two minutes.
-Chavez state Funeral today
-FED expanded Balance sheet w/w
-South by Southwest Conference starts in Communist/Globalist Austin Texas
-Secret Ambrosetti Conference Starts in Italy
-Italy Downgraded To BBB+ (Outlook Negative)-Fitch
-Goog cuts 1200 Motorola Jobs, JC Penny Wacks 2500 jobs.
-Snow Falls From New York to Boston; Flood Threat Lingers
-German Industrial production , 0 % vs +.4% e m/m Jan , -1.3 % y/y . Factory orders -1.9 % in January.
-USA +236K Jobs in Feb, Unemployment 7.7 % (102k birth death jobs added to boost number). Record 89,304,000 Americans ‘Not in Labor Force’ ; 296,000 Fewer Employed Since January
- Fed releases stress results; 17 of 18 pass stress scenarios; Ally Financial does not pass
-North Korea threatens Preemptive first strike after UN Sanctions pass
-China’s exports Surge 21.8 % y/y in Feb
-Japan returns to growth in 4Q, .2 % y/y
4:01 p.m. EST 03/08/13Major Stock Indexes
U.S. STOCKS | See all U.S. Stocks Data
4:01 p.m. EST 03/08/13Major Indexes(Roll over for charts)
4:01 p.m. EST 03/08/13Markets Diary
3:47 pm EST 03/08/13Most Active Stocks (Roll over for charts and headlines)
3:47 pm EST 03/08/13Gainers (Roll over for charts and headlines)
3:47 pm EST 03/08/13Decliners (Roll over for charts and headlines)
-1559, Ha, ha, too many short sellers emerged at 12400.
-1557 Must be another big downgrade after the close and the ESFS/ESM boys are desperate here. Or maybe someones leaked the China inflation number and it is horrible.
-1556 Slight decrease in S&P 500′s estimated earnings growth rate
The estimated earnings growth rate for Q1 2013 is -0.6% this week, slightly below last week’s growth rate of -0.5%. The slight decrease in the growth rate this week can mainly be attributed to downward revisions to estimates for companies in the Energy sector. On December 31, the Q1 earnings growth rate for the index was 2.2%. All ten sectors have witnessed a decline in earnings growth rates since that date, led by the Materials, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology sectors.
Part of the reason for the drop in expected earnings growth is the high percentage of negative guidance issues by S&P 500 companies for Q1. Overall, 82 companies have issued negative EPS guidance for Q1 2013, while 25 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. Thus, 77% of the companies in the index that have issued EPS guidance have issued negative guidance. This percentage is well above the 5-year average of 61%.
After reporting earnings growth in Q4 (+4.1%), the index is expected to report a small decline in Q1 (-0.6%). If the final number is negative, it will mark the second time in the past three quarters that the index has reported a year-over-year decline in earnings growth. Four of the ten sectors are projected to report an earnings decrease for the quarter, led by the Energy (-4.8%) and Information Technology (-3.1%) sectors. On the other hand, the Utilities (7.4%), Financials (2.9%), and Consumer Discretionary (2.1%) sectors are predicted to see the highest earnings growth. The estimated revenue growth rate for the index for Q1 is 0.4%, down from an estimate of 0.9% at the end of the quarter.
During the upcoming week, one S&P 500 company is scheduled to report earnings for the fourth quarter and one S&P 500 company is scheduled to report earnings for the first quarter.
-1550 Who are these buyers? Shorting more @Dow 12,400 .
Must be GS, they sent their boys all over the tape today talking up the crap EUE and crap USE.
-USA session Economic Release Summary
(DE) Germany Jan Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.2%e
(US) Feb Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +236K v +160Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +246K v +170Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +14K v +9Ke
(US) Feb Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.9%e; Underemployment Rate: 14.3% v 14.4% prior; Change in Household Employment: +170K v +17K prior
(US) Feb Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.5 v 34.4e
(US) Jan Wholesale Inventories: 1.2% v 0.3%e
(US) Jan Wholesale Sales M/M: -0.8% v +0.1%e
(CA) Canada Feb Net Change in Employment: +50.7K v +8.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.0% v 7.1%e; Full Time Employment Change: +33.6K v -20.6K prior; Part Time Employment Change: +17.2K v -1.4K prior; Participation Rate: 66.7% v 66.7%e
(CA) Canada Feb Housing Starts: 180.7K v 175.0Ke
(CA) Canada Q4 Labor Productivity Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.0%e
(MX) Mexico Dec Gross Fixed Investment: -0.7%e
(MX) Mexico Central Bank cuts its Overnight Rate by 50bps to 4.00%; Not expected
(CL) Chile Feb CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e
(BR) Brazil Feb IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 6.3% v 6.2%e
-Y/D hits 96. I covered some more of my Yen short here.
3:03 p.m. EST 03/08/13Major Stock Indexes
-This Trish Regan is such a stupid thing. How does she hold a job? BBN-TV pumping the new DIA high and jobs report. Despite all that makeup shes looking old and skanky. That bright red/whore dress does not cut it at her age. At least Maria Bartiromo can dress well and tries to not act like a whore. Maria I will bet is at Ambrosetti and spreading her legs for all the Zionist banksters if only metaphorically.
-Krueger, Obama’s economic adviser was on BBN-TV, he was ‘sweating bullets’ and very worried over the sequester. BBN-TV basically said the job report was faked to give the Obama administration and Congress time to deal with the Sequester. I have never seen an economic adviser so worried. Supposedly Perez is in, as next labor secretary another worthless hack and Sephardi Jew. Can a non Sephardi or a non black Jew ever hold a job in government as a ‘minority’. Sure they can if they are lesbian like Oprah…rofl.
-German FinMIn Schäuble says there is “no doubt” banking rules will be passed. The Europeans have this Ambrosetti conference going on right now. Important talking heads re sequestered figuring out how to deal with Italy and all the wars they created in N. Africa/Middle East.
-F35 just like the F22, expensive and not a chance in real combat, per the Pentgaon no less.
-BBN-TV is calling for a bear market in gold. Some analyst cites ‘better shorts’. Calls dollar the ‘go to currency’. Once the Y/D hits 100, the dollars rally will be over unless the ECB cuts rates to drop the Euro to 125.
-Remembering the Commie Liar Chavez as he is buried (sort of , they intend to keep him on display forever like Lenin).
-Germans letting country go to hell as they bailout rest of EU
ROFL, so much for the German economic miracle.
Germans finally form an anti-EU party..go Germany dump the chumps
Anti-euro political parties in Europe in recent years have so far tended to be either well to the right of center or, as evidenced by the recent vote in Italy, anything but staid. But in Germany, change may be afoot. A new party is forming this spring, intent on abandoning European efforts to prop up the common currency. And its founders are a collection of some of the country’s top economists and academics.
Named Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany), the group has a clear goal: “the dissolution of the euro in favor of national currencies or smaller currency unions.” The party also demands an end to aid payments and the dismantling of the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund….
-What Holder Really Said
Lew Rockwell Blog
March 8, 2013
It took a 13-hour filibuster from Senator Rand Paul to wring this terse statement from Attorney General Eric Holder:
“It has come to my attention that you have now asked an additional question: `Does the President have the authority to use a weaponized drone to kill an American not engaged in combat on American soil?’ The answer to that question is no.”
Like all statements from people who presume to rule others, this brief message from Holder – – who is Nickolai Krylenko to Obama’s Josef Stalin – should be read in terms of the supposed authority claimed thereby. This means removing useless qualifiers in the interest of clarity.
What Holder is saying, in substantive terms, is that the President does have the supposed authority to use a drone to kill an American who is engaged in “combat,” whether here or abroad. “Combat” can consist of expressing support for Muslims mounting armed resistance against U.S. military aggression, which was the supposed crime committed by Anwar al-Awlaki, or sharing the surname and DNA of a known enemy of the state, which was the offense committed by Awlaki’s 16-year-old son, Abdel. Under the rules of engagement used by the Obama Regime in Pakistan, Yemen, and Afghanistan, any “military-age” male found within a targeted “kill zone” is likewise designated a “combatant,” albeit usually after the fact. This is a murderous application of the “Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy,” and it will be used when — not if — Obama or a successor starts conducting domestic drone-killing operations.
Holder selected a carefully qualified question in order to justify a narrowly tailored answer that reserves an expansive claim of executive power to authorize summary executions by the president. That’s how totalitarians operate.
-1245 Europe and USA closing Summary
The big news around the globe was Japan returning to growth of .2 %, by revising its Q4 figures, and the Y/D surging to over 95 , despite China’s complaints. The massive surge of Chinese exports in Feb of 21.8 % y/y to the shocking German Industrial production data showing no increase in January, and a -1.3 % decline y/y and a drop in factory orders of -1.9 %(yeterday). No matter the shorts were jammed up on that news by the Regling/ESM gang. Then we had a ”perfect’ job report from the BLS in the USA, not too hot and not too cold cooked up, with the BLS reporting 236k jobs were added in Feb, and the unemployment dropping to 7.7 % despite the net job pool growing every month due to demographics, the BLS said it declined. The BLS needed to invent 102k jobs to get to the 236k number.
The only good news out of Europe was Spain’s industrial production was less horrible than the month before and y/y but was still sharply negative. Most of the European action could be attributed to the massive rally in the Spanish bond market and Italy’s bond remaining ‘capped’ by that hidden hand at the ESM, and GS talking up Italy and Spain last night and as the credit markets were stabilized, equity risk could be added by black boxes trend following, and lead on by Draghi’s cheer leading yesterday that the EU is pulling out of a sharp nose dive this year when the data does not support that thesis at all.
The DAX got pushed over 8000 before the USA jobs number to decline below, then pushed over 8000 again on the USA jobs to finally settle down a bit below, 8000 at the close at 7986 . I remain short but had to go long the DAX at the opening as you could tell the ESM/ECB were gunning for 8000 where I took some money off the table and put on the short I covered at the opening.
Capital Economics out of London put out this note on Germany
January’s stagnation in German industrial production is a blow to hopes that the economy could recover strongly at the start of this year. The outturn was weaker than the consensus forecast of a 0.5% rise and left the annual growth rate at -1.3%.
Admittedly, the data still suggest that Q1 should be much better than Q4. If production was unchanged in February and March, it would have risen by 0.3% in Q1 as a whole – far better than Q4’s 2.9% drop.
But while this suggests that Q4’s 0.6% fall in GDP will not be repeated, it is not consistent with a strong recovery either. This is in line with the message from the composite PMI, which points to modest quarterly gains in GDP of about 0.2%.
Further ahead, a further fall in the euro and modest improvement in global demand might mean that the gradual industrial recovery continues. And January’s 1.6% rise in production of consumer goods might suggest that household demand is starting to recover. But with German unemployment now rising and the euro at a high level, we still doubt that the recovery will be as strong as most forecasters expect.
Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, said it is too early to assume that the worst is over. “Clearly the world economy avoided collapse last year. I am very concerned that, by moving into a semi-complacent mood, people risk a relapse”(Irish Times). Lagarde also said the ECB had room to cut rates, something Draghi said would only happen if the EU got worse as he straddled the fence yesterday. Perhaps the German data today moved him, and Lagarde , off that fence today.
Ireland’s Finmin Noonan said talks of the bailout exit were going well with the IMF. Lagarde said Europe should do all it can to assist Ireland’s return to the financial markets, above and beyond simply stretching out the time it has to pay back the $E30bn it owes the European bail-out funds
Le Figaro said the French jobless rate is now higher than at any time in the 1930s when France at least had an empire to export the unemployed to. Some 75pc of French households think that the economy will deteriorate over the next year.“France is on the brink economic implosion,” said economist Christian Saint Etienne yeterday, warning that a state sector nearing 57pc of GDP rendered the country unfit for of EMU.France PM Ayrault confirmed the need to find €5.0B in new savings in 2014 and to promised to accomplish that through spending cuts.
Bank of Italy Visco commented that financial stability was now a fundamental policy goal in which central banks played crucial role in a frank confession of the powers at work in the markets. Italian corporate and household non-performing loans rose to a record in December, reaching $EU125 billion, according to data from the Italian Banking Association. Banks’ gross non- performing loans as a proportion of total lending increased to 6.3 percent from 5.4 percent . Bad loans in the country rose 17.5% in January, compared with the same month last year, and the bad loan data is expected to increase in the next report per BBN which failed to get comments on this from the two main Italian banks. No wonder Visco was out calling for ‘vigilance’ last month. Vigilance means capping CDS and buying some Italians bonds in the open market on bad news then selling them later after the intervention. Italian banks like Greek banks are filled with their nations own Sovereign bonds. Fitch cuts Italy to BBB plus, outlook negative finally getting off the dime.
Inflation “expectations” are on the rise in the UK. Britons believe inflation will be 3.6% over the next 12 months, compared with expectations of 3.5% three months ago, according to a BOE survey. The UK ONS said building work slowed down by 6.3% in January.
The Greeks are on a national strike today.
Clearly the tape in Europe has no correlation to the economic data, whereas in the USA at least the data is faked to move the tape up.
Gold was held in check by the Cartel today. Hey, the jobs report was cooked ‘just perfect’ not too hot and not too cold.
|Country: Index||Last||Change||% Chg|
|Stoxx Europe 50||2700.78||24.52||0.92|
|Stoxx Europe 600||295.55||2.36||0.80|
|Euro Stoxx 50||2728.78||37.93||1.41|
|Austria: ATX Index*||2548.84||39.57||1.58|
|Denmark: OMX Copenhagen 20*||552.76||0.73||0.13|
|Estonia: OMX Tallinn*||801.23||15.06||1.92|
|Finland: OMX Helsinki*||6316.80||32.88||0.52|
|France: CAC 40*||3840.15||46.37||1.22|
|Greece: Athex Composite Share Price*||952.34||15.77||1.68|
|Greece: DJ Greece TSM*||713.87||10.86||1.54|
|Greece: FTSE/ATHEX 20*||313.13||5.98||1.95|
|Iceland: OMX Iceland All-Share*||791.63||1.18||0.15|
|Ireland: ISEQ Overall *||3831.39||3.11||0.08|
|Italy: FTSE MIB*||16204.03||256.86||1.61|
|Latvia: OMX Riga*||409.53||-1.66||-0.40|
|Lithuania: OMX Vilnius*||380.25||2.89||0.77|
|Norway: OSE All-Share*||525.10||3.34||0.64|
|Portugal: PSI 20||6076.09||63.73||1.06|
|Russia: DJ Russia Titans*||6487.31||121.63||1.91|
|Spain: IBEX 35*||8628.10||239.00||2.85|
|Sweden: OMX Stockholm*||379.47||2.08||0.55|
|Switzerland: Swiss Market*||7744.84||35.88||0.47|
|UK: FTSE 100*||6483.58||44.42||0.69|
|UK: FTSE 250*||14018.79||65.44||0.47|
|UK: FTSE AIM All-Share*||748.85||3.59||0.48|
German 10y 1.53+0.03, -2.20%
Italy 10y 4.53-0.01, 0.30%
Spain 10y 4.74-0.15,3.08%
U.K. 10y 2.06+0.05, -2.28%
Not only was Jim Oneill of GS out amplifying Draghi’s pump of the EU recovery in the EU morning, he went on CNBC to pump the USE economy this morning the job number, and this magical self sustaining recovery (which does not exist) and the $, and all things USA . He is such a shame less liar, I switched the interview off. I guess after the FED’s stress test results showing GS is woefully leveraged and under-capitalized yesterday he need to do his part for the ECB and FED today. The FED sent Bullard over to BBN-TV who frankly admitted it going to take more QE before the USE is out of the woodshed. There is also talk the FED could just let the 3 tln of assets on its books mature, rather than selling them in report Reuters-insider put out. Bill Gross also did his job for the FED trying to stop a bond rout in UST and issued a buy. MCD’s same store sales were down 1.5 pc in Feb. February sales in the U.S. fell 3.3% and were flat excluding the extra day caused by the leap Year. Given the price increases at MCD in the past year, we had declining real sales in the USA. If people are not eating out at MCD, the economy is not getting better when the next step up the rung, Chiles sales fell off the roof in Feb. The only people ‘eating’ out are the people that can afford to dine at Chez Panisse, and even they had a interesting fire early this morning.
The Euro took it on the Chin below 1.30 and the Y/D surged to a near 96, where I finally sold some of my position. On big up days in currency always take a profit. I’m holding on for y/d 100 but have money to buy a pull back. Once Y/D hits 100, the dollar rally and gold body slam should abate by London and their Kin in NY.
I spread traded the jobs report, covered some short and put on more long, then sold the opening and put some of my short back on in the DIA/SPY. The USA inventory report was very punkish and the markets came off a bit on that.
These are crap, central bank and bank run markets, but they are the only markets we have. Volume is anemic today. Hard to say what is going to stop the grind higher in the markets, it could be Greece, or a banking crisis in Italy or Spain or maybe just more bad data out of Europe. China’s inflation figure is going to be closely watched. It could spark a sell off on Monday. I want to be there when the fantasy ends of German or USE lead or even China lead recovery. The Global economy is bouncing along a jobless bottom for the most part. Banks and firms are hoarding cash and offshoring.
Thanks London. Satan really appreciates all the work you do from Jim Oneill at Goldman London to Niall Ferguson of the Rothschilds bank, there is no one like you people on the face of the planet.
MARKETS – AT A GLANCE
-The Sierras banked another 2 feet of badly needed snow.
11:05 a.m. EST 03/08/13Major Stock Indexes
-Brent crude declined to its lowest level this year, erasing this week’s advance, as flows increased through a North Sea pipeline after a five-day halt.Brent futures dropped as much as 1.8 percent to the lowest since Dec. 26. The Brent Pipeline System in the North Sea is “approaching” its targeted flow rate of 80,000 barrels a day, an official for Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. (TAQA), or Taqa, said by phone today. The system had an unplanned halt on March 2. West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed, paring losses after the U.S. added more jobs than forecast last month. BBN
North Korea carried out its threat to scrap the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War and cancel a cross-border hotline after the UN Security Council unanimously approved tougher sanctions over a forbidden nuclear test.The United Nations body yesterday voted 15-0, with no debate, to adopt a resolution drafted by the U.S. and China in the aftermath of the Feb. 12 underground blast. The resolution came hours after the totalitarian state threatened a preemptive atomic strike on the U.S. and other “aggressors.”North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspected front-line troops and said the military is ready for “all-out war,” the official Korean Central News Agency reported today. The government closed a liaison channel with the U.S. and South Korea at the world’s most heavily fortified border.The new sanctions target “illicit activity” by North Korean diplomats, bulk transfers of cash, and banks and companies funneling funds or materials to support the country’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programs. Previous measures have failed to deter the impoverished regime from pursuing its atomic weapon ambitions. “Our warnings were not heeded,” said Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, who holds the council’s rotating presidency. “Now the choice is for the DPRK to make,” he said, referring to the country by its official title, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. “Now other interested parties must behave responsibly,” he added.The tightened sanctions may lead to provocation from North Korea, Bank of Korea senior deputy governor Park Won Shik said at an emergency meeting in Seoul today.“Our financial markets, stocks, bonds, and currency may see some impact, although we don’t see any unusual moves so far,” Park said. “We will closely watch the markets and work together with the government for market stability if needed.” BBN
-Wall Street Banking on Pentagon Weather Engineering Madness Continuing
Summer drought may clobber the Midwest
-Heavy snow will fall until midday across the Hudson Valley north of New York City and in eastern Massachusetts as the coast braces for another round of flooding from a storm that dumped almost a foot on some Boston suburbs. One to 3 inches (2.5 to 8 centimeters) may fall on New York City as the week-old storm moves out to sea after canceling thousands of airline flights, shutting federal offices and confounding forecasters.
-In the faked news and the faked war on terror this is laughable
Bin Laden Son-in-Law Pleads Not Guilty to Charges of Conspiring to Kill Americans
He will be beaten, water boarded, drugged and this will never go to a jury trial. You start a big lie like 911, the false flag operation called by the BBC and Bibi you’ve got to have government stooges at all levels and patsies to continue the ‘myths’. The Holocaust industry works on this principal.
-Gerhard Cromme, who shaped the fate of German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA) in a career spanning almost three decades, unexpectedly resigned as chairman of the supervisory board as the company seeks to break with a past tainted by corruption and price-fixing scandals. Cromme, 70, is stepping down from the post he held for 12 years on March 31, Essen-based ThyssenKrupp said in a statement today. He will also quit as vice chairman of the board of trustees and as a member of the Alfried Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach Foundation, the company’s largest shareholder. BBN
-Newslinks are updated. Interesting right before the jobs numbers some one tried to hack me, then tried to cut off my access to Iceland. The only thing more annoying than the spooks and their goon hackers that read this blog, is the time it takes to add a link. In Europe, bad economic news means higher markets. At least in the USA they used faked economic news to take the markets higher. American political and banking elites are far more sophisticated than the ham fisted Regling/Draghi.
-JC Penny is cutting 2500 jobs as their turn around fails to materialize. I guess ‘birth death’ jobs among the middle classes don’t cut it there..lol
-U.S. January Wholesale Inventories Jump 1.2%; Sales Drop 0.8%
Inventories at the wholesale level rebounded sharply in January after slight gain in the prior month, the Commerce Department said Friday. Inventories rose 1.2% in January to a seasonally adjusted $504.4 billion. This is the largest monthly gain since December 2011. Economists were expecting an increase of about 0.3%. Wholesale inventories are only 25% of overall inventories. In December, inventories were revised to a gain of 0.1% from the initial estimate of a fall of 0.1%. Inventories have risen 6.5% in the past 12 months. The value of drug inventories jumped 6.2% in January. This is the largest gain since October 1996. Stocks of professional equipment, groceries and petroleum also rose. Inventories of autos rose 0.4%. Sales of wholesalers fell 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted $415.4 billion in January. The inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.21 in January, up from 1.19 in December. The number measures how many months it would take for a company to sell off its current inventory.MW
10:05 a.m. EST 03/08/13Major Stock Indexes
-German industrial production unexpectedly stagnated in January as Europe’s debt crisis weighed on company spending and investment.Production was unchanged from December, when it rose 0.6 percent (revised up from .3 pc) , the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists forecast a 0.4 percent gain for January. From a year earlier, production fell 1.3 percent when adjusted for working days.While confidence among German businesses and investors jumped in February, factory orders unexpectedly fell 1.9 percent in Jan.
9:33 a.m. EST 03/08/13Major Stock Indexes
-931 USA opening
-FED Balance Sheet
After pausing last week and sterilizing some of the prior weeks purchases the FED continued to expand its balance sheet as of Wednesday (reported late Thursday), the FED balance sheet was $ 3,110,443 mln, +18, 175 mln w/w, and + 223,389 y/y. UST purchases were + 12,218 w/w and MBS were +29 mln w/w.
-Household wealth in the U.S. climbed in the fourth quarter to the highest level in five years, propelled by a gain in home prices that is helping repair family finances.Net worth for households and non-profit groups increased by $1.17 trillion from October through December, or 1.8 percent from the previous three months, to $66.1 trillion, the Federal Reserve said in its flow of funds report. It was the highest since the fourth quarter of 2007.Household net worth is still $1.34 trillion below its pre- recession peak of $67.4 trillion reached in the third quarter of 2007. The value of financial assets owned by American households, including stocks and pension-fund holdings, increased by $784.4 billion in the fourth quarter, the FED report showed.Household debt grew at its fastest pace since early 2008 in the fourth quarter of last year, a possible sign that the painful process of paring back borrowing in the aftermath of the financial crisis may have run its course.Household debt rose at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the FED said. It was the steepest gain since the first quarter of 2008 and only the third quarter since then in which debt levels rose.
-Asia Closing Prices
My Asian summary was done before China closed last night, and after being up slightly they sold off hard into the close with the Shanghai composite down -.24 %. Hong Kong rallied into the close to finish up 1.41 % on the Hang Seng.
Japan FinMin Aso said to hold phone conversation with US Treasury Sec Lew on Friday, although the press did not say what about. Japan Vice Fin Min Nakao commented that there was limited emerging market impact from advanced nation easing and that capital flow to developing nation from monetary easing was good. He also reiterated that Japan policies have domestic goal of beating deflation. RBA head Stevens wants another turn after creating one of the biggest housing bubbles in the history of the world. India PM Singh said he intends to use all policy steps to increase economic growth to 7-8% over the next few years. PBOC expanded its currency swap agreement with Singapore to CNY300B from CNY150B prior to expand direct trade.China’s Commerce Minister Chen Deming said he’s concerned at the risk of competitive devaluations as the yen slumped to the lowest level against the dollar in more than three years.
-Europe Economic Release Summary
(FI) Finland Jan Industrial Production M/M: -3.6 v +1.6% prior; Y/Y: -4.8% v -1.3% prior
(SE) Sweden Feb PES Unemployment Rate: 4.7% v 4.8%e
(FR) Bank of France Feb Business Sentiment: 96 v 96e
(FR) France Jan Central Govt. Balance: -€12.8B v -€87.2B prior
(ES) Spain Jan Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -3.6% v -8.5% prior; Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -5.0% v -6.0%e
(HU) Hungary Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.9 v -0.9% prelim; Y/Y: -2.7 v -2.7% prelim
(TR) Turkey Jan Industrial Production WDA M/M: +2.3 v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: +1.9 v -1.8% prior; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.6%e
(CZ) Czech Feb Share of Unemployed 15-64 Age Group: 8.1% v 8.1%e
(CZ) Czech Jan Trade Balance (CZK): 31.5B v 29.6Be
(AT) Austria Q4 Final WIFO GDP: 0.1%
(EU) ECB: €206M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €48M prior; €129.1B parked in deposit facility vs. €139.4B prior
(CH) Swiss Feb CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e
(CH) Swiss Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.3% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: +0.1% v -0.1% prior
(SE) Sweden Jan Industrial Orders M/M: -3.1% v 7.7% prior; Y/Y: -5.4% v -2.8% prior
(SE) Sweden Jan Industrial Production M/M: -2.0% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -7.8% v -4.8%e
(CZ) Czech Q4 Current Account: -€1.4B v -€1.7Be
(IC) Iceland Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 4.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 2.2% prior
(UK) Feb BOE/GFK Inflation Next 12-month: 3.6% v 3.5% prior
(UK) Jan Construction Output M/M: -6.3%; Y/Y: -7.9%
(GR) Greece Feb CPI Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.2% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.0% prior
-855 Overall my opinion this is another very weak and statistically manipulated report, so I will sell my longs for the morning bounce and carry a bit more short over the weekend. The DAX is at 8000, so I sold some more short there after covering some ahead of the report and selling my Long position I put on at the opening in Europe. I mentioned yesterday no matter what the data regling looked like he was targeting 8000 on the DAX. Good job Herr Regling you devil. Hell will be hot so enjoy it here you Zio-Nazi.
-U6 declined from 14.4 to 14.3 % in Feb (Long term unemployed). The average workweek rose by 0.1 of an hour to 34.5 hours. January report was actually revised lower. Revisions show January job growth came in at 119,000, down from initial estimate of 157,000.Average hourly earnings overall were up 4 cents, to $23.82, up 2.1% from a year ago, slightly ahead of the ‘official CPI’ but far behind the actual CPI.The participation rate (percentage of people in the labor force who are “participating” in the labor force, whether employed or looking for work) fell to 63.5 % in February from 63.6 % in January and 63.9 % in February 2012, seasonally adjusted. Not adjusted, it fell to 63.2 from 63.3 in January, and 63.6 in February 2012.The number of people not in the labor force, not seasonally adjusted, rose to 90.1 million in February, up from 89.9 million in January and 88.3 million in February 2012. So the headline unemployment rate drop of 7.7 got some significant statistical help by dropping the number of people looking for work.
-840 Gold down -0.7%, 10-year yield up to 2.08%
-I will claim a moral victory in predicting 135k-15ok jobs as the BLS added 102k ‘birth death jobs’. So if we subtract these phony jobs out, we get 144k jobs were generated in Feb. Thank goodness I spread traded that and was so, so quick on the program trigger or rather my system was.
- The private sector added 246,000 jobs, accounting for all of the job gains. Government lost 10,000 jobs, led by state and local governments job cuts.
-Economy added 183,000 jobs a month, on average, in all of 2012.
-830 U.S. economy gains 236,000 jobs in February, unemployment 7.7 pc
Okay, I covered some DIA/SPY shorts, and kept the longs, covered some DAX short.
-Thank goodness for programmed trading.
-825 Dow futures are +43 , the euro is flat against the dollar, gold is flat at $1576+ , and WTI is -0.6% to $91 a barrel. Treasurys are off the 10-year note up 0.7% to 2.02%.
-McDonald’s Corp. MCD +0.29% said Friday global comparable sales in February fell 1.5% as the year-ago period had one extra day due to leap year. Excluding the discrepancy, global comparable sales rose 1.7% in February. The Oak Brook, Ill.-based fast-food company said February sales in the U.S. fell 3.3% and were flat excluding the extra day. Shares rose 1% in premarket trading.
Not exactly a sign of a robust USE is it. If you can’t afford to eat out at MCD, you’re truly broke Mr and Mrs Amerika under your dear leader.
I went long the DAX at the opening and sold here. I put on some more DAX short. I went long some DIA/SPY as a hedge on the Jobs report. The more lousy economic new Europe has the higher their markets go. Very bizarre.
|Country: Index||Last||Change||% Chg|
|Stoxx Europe 50||2688.38||12.12||0.45|
|Stoxx Europe 600||294.54||1.35||0.46|
|Euro Stoxx 50||2716.27||25.42||0.94|
|Austria: ATX Index||2538.19||28.92||1.15|
|Denmark: OMX Copenhagen 20||553.75||1.72||0.31|
|Estonia: OMX Tallinn||794.61||8.44||1.07|
|Finland: OMX Helsinki||6322.27||38.36||0.61|
|France: CAC 40||3824.71||30.93||0.82|
|Greece: Athex Composite Share Price||937.29||0.72||0.08|
|Greece: DJ Greece TSM||705.38||2.37||0.34|
|Greece: FTSE/ATHEX 20||307.58||0.43||0.14|
|Iceland: OMX Iceland All-Share||790.97||0.52||0.07|
|Ireland: ISEQ Overall||3833.39||5.11||0.13|
|Italy: FTSE MIB||16135.95||188.78||1.18|
|Latvia: OMX Riga||409.83||-1.37||-0.33|
|Lithuania: OMX Vilnius||380.13||2.77||0.73|
|Norway: OSE All-Share||525.19||3.43||0.66|
|Portugal: PSI 20||6027.97||15.61||0.26|
|Russia: DJ Russia Titans||6464.09||98.41||1.55|
|Spain: IBEX 35||8522.40||133.30||1.59|
|Sweden: OMX Stockholm||379.05||1.66||0.44|
|Switzerland: Swiss Market||7746.41||37.45||0.49|
|UK: FTSE 100||6454.76||15.60||0.24|
|UK: FTSE 250||13997.02||43.67||0.31|
|UK: FTSE AIM All-Share||748.00||2.74||0.37|
-Pick up in the USA trading morning, if I can get a link to Iceland.
|DJIA INDEX FUTURE Jun13||14,334.00||+0.05%||14,310.00||14,339.00||14,305.00||01:55:28|
|FTSE 100 IDX FUT Mar13||6,445.00||+0.16%||6,434.50||6,448.00||6,434.00||01:48:3|
Japan’s Nikkei Average closed +2.6% at 12,283.62, eclipsing its 12,214.76 close on Sept. 12, 2008 just before U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed. A strong Q4 GDP report with Japan returning at last to growth drove the Y/D as much as the stock market and the Y/D surged to 95.3+ getting close to the 100 Y/D targeted by TM/Abe, but far less than the 120-130 Y/D that a 2 pc inflation rate implies. The market voted for Abenomics. Once the Y/D reaches 100, we should see the end to the $ rally.
Japan’s economy pulled out of its 2012 downturn faster than previously estimated, according to revised GDP data released Friday, providing a tailwind to the government’s pro-growth policies.The government said GDP rose at a price-adjusted 0.2% in annualized terms in the fourth quarter, up from the previous reading of a 0.4% contraction. That follows annualized declines in the April-June and July-September periods.Other data released Friday showed the third straight month of shortfall in Japan’s current account as the country’s trade balance deteriorated.The current account deficit came to Y364.8 billion in January before seasonal adjustments, the government said, after a Y264.1 billion deficit in December. The current account is the broadest measure of what Japan earns from trade and cross-border investment.Though it was stronger than the Y626.0 billion ($6.6 billion) gap expected by economists, MOF officials said a technical factor concerning Japan’s debt forgiveness of Myanmar added Y158.5 billion to the January figure.
The Bank of Japan raised its assessment of the nation’s economy Friday, its first three-month run of upward revisions since late 2009, amid increasing signs that the world’s third-largest economy has emerged from a brief recession.Japan’s economy “has stopped weakening,” the central bank said in its latest monthly report, a more optimistic view compared with February’s assessment that the economy “appears to be stopping weakening.”The run of three consecutive assessment upgrades was the first since the period between September and November 2009. But it may do little to weaken expectations that the BOJ will take further easing action.
Japan’s Finmin Aso said the MOF will extend beyond March corporate support measures to assist with strong yen; No comment on new multi-month high in USDJPY above Y95 level though. Japan EconMin Amari said economic sentiment is moving in positive direction in the Japanese press.
Japan’s Business Lobby Group (Keidanren) looking to propose legislation that will help support industrial competitiveness.The number of companies that entered bankruptcy with debts of at least 10 million yen fell 11.8% on the year to 916 in February, marking the fourth straight month of decline and the lowest reading for the month since 1994, Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd. reported Friday.Liabilities plunged 72.8% to 171.97 billion yen, falling for the third straight month. The slide came in reaction to the huge debt held by Elpida Memory Inc. in February 2012, the largest ever recorded in the manufacturing industry.
Leading China’s market higher were excellent export figures for the month of February; exports rose 21.8 % y/y in Feb and the trade surplus was $15.25 billion for the month. PBOC Gov Zhou expressed concerns the high ratio of M2 to GDP shows risks in banking system, perhaps justifying his liquidity drains this week. Shanghai Daily citing analysts suggesting PBOC may have to suspend easy policies or even tighten later this month if CPI in Jan-Feb period expected this weekend rises above expectations. China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) Chairman Shang said local goverment financing vehicles (LGFVs) rose +2.2% y/y to CNY9.3.China’s Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) sees reasons for optimism for 2013 foreign trade; will maintain current level of FDI, to be at $100B level this year; and concerned over Y/D surge.
China and the European Union could start investment talks in the coming months, the Chinese ambassador to the EU said.China has also submitted a proposal on launching a feasibility study on a free-trade agreement with the EU, said Wu Hailong, who is also a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.China does not want to be left behind while EU-US trade negotiations are under way. The EU and Japan are also expected to enter into trade negotiations.
China Passenger Car Association said Jan-Feb vehicle shipments rose 21.6% y/y; on a wholesale level, sales rose 19.8% y/y.
Officials behind China’s self-developed nuclear reactor, known as the CAP1400, expect to sign its first overseas orders for the technology this year, most likely from South America or Asia. China is the leading user and manufacturer of solar power-new solar generation capacity will rise about 14 percent this year to 34.1 gigawatts, equal to about eight atomic reactors, and would beat the 4.4 percent solar growth in 2012, when demand shrank in Italy and France after subsidies were cut.
A top social security official confirmed there is no shortfall in the country’s pensions for enterprise retirees, two days after Premier Wen Jiabao vowed to raise such funding by a further 10 percent this year.”I can assure you responsibly that there is no gap in the pension fund for enterprise retirees. The accumulated balance exceeds 2.3 trillion yuan ($371 billion),” said Yin Weimin, minister of human resources and social security.Yin said the national pension fund collected 1.9 trillion yuan in revenue by the end of last year, when expenditures amounted to 1.5 trillion yuan, creating a 400-billion-yuan balance.
Bank of Korea (BOK) to hold emergency meeting on UN sanctions against North Korea. Most of the discussions in the Korean press were about the North Korea situation and the latest threat of nuclear holocaust by North Korea.
According to Woori Finance, South Korea’s effective jobless rate (counting underemployed workers) hit 5.8%
Samsung reported they would be supplying electric vehicle batteries to VW
Asia Session, Economic Releases
(CN) CHINA FEB TRADE BALANCE: +$15.25B V -$6.9BE
(JP) JAPAN Q4 FINAL GDP: 0.0% V 0.1%E; GDP ANNUALIZED: 0.2% V 0.2%E; GDP DEFLATOR Y/Y: -0.7% V -0.6%E; NOMINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.3% V -0.3%E
(JP) JAPAN JAN CURRENT ACCOUNT TOTAL: -¥364.8B V -¥611.5BE (3rd consecutive deficit); ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT TOTAL: ¥364.6B V ¥122.2BE (3-month high)
(JP) JAPAN JAN TRADE BALANCE – BOP BASIS: -¥1.48T V -¥1.51TE
(JP) JAPAN FEB CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES Y/Y: -12.1% V -5.2% PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN FEB ECO WATCHERS CURRENT SURVEY: 53.2 V 49.5 PRIOR (highest level since April 2006); OUTLOOK SURVEY: 57.7 V 56.5 PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN BOJ MAR MONTHLY REPORT: UPGRADES ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT FOR 3RD CONSECUTIVE MONTH (as expected)
(JP) JAPAN FEB BANK LENDING EX-TRUSTS: 1.9% V 1.6% PRIOR; BANK LENDING INCL TRUSTS: 1.5% V 1.3% PRIOR (highest since Aug of 2009)
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB QV HOUSE PRICES Y/Y: 6.3% V 6.2% PRIOR (multi-month high)
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY VOLUME Q/Q: 1.5% V 2.6% PRIOR; MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY Q/Q: FLAT V 1.6% PRIOR
(SL) SRI LANKA LEAVES REVERSE REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 9.50% (EXPECTED); LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 7.50% (EXPECTED)
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.25%; AS EXPECTED
|Country: Index||Last||Change||% Chg|
|DJ Asia-Pacific TSM||1385.68||8.43||0.61|
|Australia: All Ordinaries*||5137.50||14.40||0.28|
|China: DJ CBN China 600||21842.36||-1.64||-0.01|
|China: DJ Shanghai||299.37||0.50||0.17|
|China: Shanghai Composite||2329.28||4.99||0.21|
|China: Shenzhen Composite||963.77||-4.57||-0.47|
|China: Shanghai 50||1913.95||11.58||0.61|
|Hong Kong: Hang Seng||23179.96||408.52||1.79|
|India: BSE Sensex||19545.53||131.99||0.68|
|India: S&P CNX Nifty||5906.75||43.45||0.74|
|Indonesia: JSX Index||4871.32||23.02||0.47|
|Indonesia: JSX BISNIS 27||425.95||2.97||0.70|
|Indonesia: JSX Islamic||668.29||5.33||0.80|
|Indonesia: JSX LQ-45||837.64||5.33||0.64|
|Japan: DJ Japan TSM*||636.19||9.79||1.56|
|Japan: Nikkei 225||12264.55||296.47||2.48|
|Japan: TOPIX Index||1020.50||16.15||1.61|
|Malaysia: DJ Malaysia TSM||3092.18||4.63||0.15|
|Malaysia: FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI||1651.86||0.93||0.06|
|New Zealand: NZX 50*||4354.03||20.55||0.47|
|S. Korea: KOSPI||2002.28||-2.12||-0.11|
|S. Korea: KOSPI 50||1731.89||-8.49||-0.49|
|S. Korea: KOSPI 100||2001.12||-6.87||-0.34|
|S. Korea: KOSPI 200 Composite||264.01||-0.77||-0.29|
|Singapore: FTSE Straits Times||3294.78||-3.76||-0.11|
GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 1.8 tons to 1,243.1 ton (lowest since Nov 2011)
|US Cotton No.2||86.59||+0.32||+0.37%|
|US Coffee C||143.07||+2.12||+1.51%|
U.S. 10yr 2.01+0.01, -0.37%
Japan 10yr 0.65-0.03, 4.37%
-USA After Hours Summary
- HLF: Icahn increases stake to 15.55% from 13.6% prior – filing; +1.8% afterhours
- P: Reports Q4 -$0.04 (adj) v -$0.05e, R$125M v $122Me; +20.7% afterhours
- TXN: Guides Q1 $0.28-0.32 v $0.32e; Rev $2.80-2.91B v $2.83Be (guided Q1 $0.24-0.32, $2.69-2.91B prior) – mid quarter update; -0.3% afterhours
-Rockefellers GMO nightmare goes global
-China’s exports exceeded forecasts in February, an indication that improving global demand may help to sustain the rebound in the world’s second-biggest economy.Overseas shipments increased 21.8 percent from a year earlier, the customs administration said today, in a month that had four fewer working days than last year. Imports fell a more-than-estimated 15.2 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $15.25 billion.
-Google passes Apple to become most-owned stock by U.S. mutual funds-wire reports
-JPMorgan Chase & Co is pulling out of the panel that sets Australia’s benchmark interbank lending rates, joining UBS in an exodus from regional rate setting panels in the wake of the Libor rate rigging scandal. BBN
-Google Inc.’s Motorola Mobility hardware unit has begun laying off about 1,200 employees, or more than 10% of its headcount, according to a company email reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, as the smartphone maker continues trying to return to profitability. WSJ
-Japan returned to growth in the fourth quarter, bolstering Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s campaign to end 15 years of deflation and revive the world’s third-biggest economy.Gross domestic product rose an annualized 0.2 percent in the three months through December, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today, compared with a preliminary calculation of a 0.4 percent contraction. The current account deficit in January was 364.8 billion yen ($3.8 billion), the finance ministry said in a separate release.
-2 Peter 1:16-21
King James Version (KJV)
16 For we have not followed cunningly devised fables, when we made known unto you the power and coming of our Lord Jesus Christ, but were eyewitnesses of his majesty.
17 For he received from God the Father honour and glory, when there came such a voice to him from the excellent glory, This is my beloved Son, in whom I am well pleased.
18 And this voice which came from heaven we heard, when we were with him in the holy mount.
USA monthly jobs report day.
|00:00||JPY||BoJ Monthly Report|
|00:00||JPY||Economy Watchers Current Index||51.2||49.5|
|02:45||EUR||French Government Budget Balance||-87.2B|
|03:00||EUR||Spanish Industrial Production (YoY)||-5.2%||-6.9%|
|06:00||EUR||German Industrial Production (MoM)||0.5%||0.3%|
|06:30||INR||Indian Bank Loan Growth||16.40%|
|06:30||INR||Indian FX Reserves, USD||291.92B|
|07:00||BRL||Brazilian CPI (YoY)||6.20%||6.15%|
|08:30||CAD||Labor Productivity (QoQ)||-0.1%||-0.5%|
|08:30||USD||Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)||0.2%||0.2%|
|08:30||USD||Average Weekly Hours||34.4||34.4|
|08:30||USD||Private Nonfarm Payrolls||167K||166K|
|10:00||MXN||Mexican Interest Rate Decision||4.50%||4.50%|
|10:00||USD||Wholesale Inventories (MoM)||0.3%||-0.1%|
|10:30||USD||ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW)||6.80%|
|20:30||CNY||Chinese CPI (YoY)||3.0%||2.0%|
|20:30||CNY||Chinese CPI (MoM)||0.8%||1.0%|
|20:30||CNY||Chinese PPI (YoY)||-1.5%||-1.6%|
-Eurozone risks Japan-style deflation trap as ECB stays tight-AEP
A $3 Tln balance sheet is not ‘tight’ nor was the buy down in the Spanish debt today.
-Euro Group head says UK at risk of ‘sterling crisis’
-Fed Mulls Putting a ‘Not For Sale’ Sign on Its Assets
-Offshore Cash Hoard Expands by $183 Billion at Companies
-Analysis: German reform angst sets in a decade after “Agenda 2010
-China Inflation Over 3.5% May Prompt Rate Rise: NDRC Chen
-Japan returned to growth in the 4 th quarter
-Italian Banks’ Bad Loans Seen Rising as Gridlock Hampers Growth
-Draghi Signals Economy must worsen before rate cut
-USA Payrolls rose more than forecast
-Asian Stocks Rise as Japan, China Data Boost Optimism
-China Export Surge Helps New Leaders Sustain Rebound: Economy
-Attorney General Holder’s one-word answer to a 13-hour filibuster http://bloom.bg/WxgPDQ
-Singapore to introduce Thai and Philippine equity futures
-Bond market is telling Moody’s and S&P that they’ve got it wrong in rating sovereign debt in Southeast Asia. http://bloom.bg/13HPBfH
-All Pain, no Gain for Germans
-NTSB still seeking root cause of Boeing 787 fire
-China, Russia seek greater control of Internet: U.S.
-Nev. Senate GOP targets mining as tax alternative
-Fed Tests Show 17 of 18 Banks Weathering Severe Slump
-Merkel’s One Europe Attacked by Adenauer Grandson
-Japan Returned to Growth in Fourth Quarter in Boost for Abe
-North Korea threatens “preemptive nuclear attack” after unanimous U.N. sanction vote http://bloom.bg/YPyAbR
-Bank of Japan’s assets expanded by 50% under Shirakawa, but stocks still soared when he announced he was leaving http://bloom.bg/YFvl9Y
-China Drives Record Solar Growth
-Russia on course to send 25% of oil exports to China, other Asian consumers
-Why is the USA Spending 100s of Millions building Secret Bunkers in Israel